Up the backstretch: Turf horse took to Golden Gate's artificial track

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/21/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A 3-year-old colt that had never won a race except on the grass came away Saturday with a key victory on a synthetic surface. The change in surfaces for Daddy Nose Best proved to be beneficial for him to win the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields.

Owned by Bob Zollars and trained by Steve Asmussen, Daddy Nose Best was making just his third start on a main track and his first on a synthetic surface. His two career wins before Saturday were both on turf courses.

Daddy Nose Best was again ridden by Julien Leparoux in the El Camino Real a partnership that produced two wins, a second and a third in six starts on grass.

Asmussen didn't make the trip to Golden Gate Fields, giving the assignment to assistant trainer Darren Fleming,

"We came here because of the added distance and his experience on turf which carries over to synthetic," Fleming said. "Winning (the El Camino Real Derby) last year with Silver Medallion helped our decision. He's been getting better with time, and he's trained with a different mindset since his last race. He's been showing us he wanted more ground, so we've had to wait for the races to catch up to him."

The 1 1/8 miles of the El Camino Real was just the right distance for the colt, which was able to stick his nose on the wire inches ahead of 5-2 second pick Lucky Chappy.

"I didn't know if I won or not," said Leparoux, who came in special for the race. "It was too close to call. It was nice to see the horse fight back."

Daddy Nose Best was no stranger to stakes races. He was third last year in the Summer Stakes at Woodbine and sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Churchill Downs. After winning a turf allowance in late November at Churchill Downs, he was fifth in the Eddie Logan Stakes at Santa Anita on New Year's Eve.

The colt's next start is still undecided as apparently Zollars, Asmussen and Fleming will put their heads together and come up with a plan.

"He came out of the race really good," Fleming said Sunday. "It was a great race. Steve and Bob will get together and discuss his next race."

An added benefit to winning the graded race is the $120,000 that Daddy Nose Best gains if his connections are thinking of running in the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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